Long-Run Socioeconomic and Demographic Scenarios for California



Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Public Policy Institute of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory




_x000B_The State of California is developing and implementing a new generation of environmental policies to transition to a low-carbon economy and energy system in order to reduce the risks of future damages from global climate change. At the same time, it is increasingly clear that climate change impacts are already occurring and that further effects cannot be completely avoided. Thus, anticipating and planning for emerging and potential future climate change impacts in California must complement the state's greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. These impacts will depend substantially on the future evolution of the state's social structure and economy. To support impact studies, this report describes socioeconomic storylines and key scenario elements for California that are broadly consistent with the global "A2" and "B1" storylines in the 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, including qualitative socioeconomic context as well as quantitative projections of key variables such as population, urbanization patterns, economic growth, and electricity prices._x000B_This is a state-funded research study sponsored by the California Energy Commission and CAT.

Climate Impact Tags

Drought Extreme heat Extreme storms Flooding Ocean acidification Sea level rise Snowpack Temperature Wildfire

Adaptation Planning Guide Phases

Phase 2: Assess Vulnerability

Resource Type Tags



Extent: California


Last updated: May 31, 2023