Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview



Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Union of Concerned Scientists, UC Berkeley, CEC, CARB




This report, an overview of climate change scenarios in California, is an attachment to the main Climate Action Team Report to the Governor and Legislature. It summarizes the findings of the California Climate Change Center Scenarios Project (“the Project”) and compares these new projections with those reported in an earlier study produced by many of the same researchers (Hayhoe et al. 2004). The projections in this summary are based upon three GHG scenarios—a lower emissions, medium-high emissions, and higher emissions scenario. The effect of different estimates of the sensitivity of the climate system to GHG forcing is explored by comparing the temperature projections from three different global climate models—each containing somewhat different representations of some crucial physical processes that result in different levels of climate sensitivity. This is a state-funded research study sponsored by the California Energy Commission.

Climate Impact Tags

Drought Extreme heat Extreme storms Flooding Ocean acidification Sea level rise Snowpack Temperature Wildfire

Adaptation Planning Guide Phases

Phase 2: Assess Vulnerability

Resource Type Tags

Scientific study


Extent: California


Last updated: Jan. 31, 2023