California Energy Commission's California Climate Change Center
This research explored interactions between medium‐high and low emissions scenarios, three global climate models, six spatially explicit population growth scenarios derived from two growth models, and a range of values for multiple parameters that define vulnerability of properties at risk of loss due to wildfire. The study also explored the effects of the spatial resolution used for calculating household exposure to wildfire on changes in estimated future property losses. Results showed that variation across development scenarios accounts for far more variability in statewide residential wildfire risks than does variation across climate scenarios. The paper features case studies for the Bay Area and the Sierra foothills to demonstrate that, while land use decisions can have a profound effect on future residential wildfire risks, the effects of diverse growth and land use strategies vary greatly around the state.
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